Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan St. 98.3%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 5 16 - 4 +21.9      +12.5 1 +9.4 6 69.2 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Maryland 86.9%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 7 +16.8      +8.6 13 +8.1 16 65.9 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Purdue 84.3%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +15.9      +9.8 6 +6.1 32 64.9 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
14 Ohio St. 77.9%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.8      +6.6 29 +8.3 12 64.9 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Michigan 61.1%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +12.8      +4.5 62 +8.3 13 63.2 322 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Wisconsin 56.1%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +11.8      +3.6 76 +8.2 15 60.7 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Iowa 49.8%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +11.1      +9.6 8 +1.5 123 73.8 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
42 Illinois 48.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +10.9      +7.2 23 +3.8 76 75.5 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Penn St. 46.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.7      +5.0 56 +5.8 35 68.8 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
47 Indiana 45.2%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.1      +4.5 63 +5.6 37 66.8 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Rutgers 28.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +8.1      +3.0 88 +5.2 44 68.5 182 0.0 1 0.0 1
70 Minnesota 23.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +7.5      +3.6 77 +4.0 69 69.5 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Nebraska 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 13 +5.9      +2.8 96 +3.2 88 67.2 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 Northwestern 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 15 +4.4      -1.3 219 +5.7 36 65.3 277 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 2.1 55.5 19.3 10.2 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Maryland 4.2 17.2 17.7 15.8 12.5 9.2 7.3 6.2 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3
Purdue 4.3 16.1 18.7 15.3 12.0 9.6 7.3 5.8 4.3 3.9 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.4
Ohio St. 5.0 11.1 14.8 13.6 12.2 10.6 9.2 7.5 5.8 4.7 3.6 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.7
Michigan 6.6 5.0 7.7 9.2 10.2 10.4 9.6 9.4 8.6 7.4 6.8 5.6 4.6 3.5 1.9
Wisconsin 7.0 3.8 6.1 8.2 9.2 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.1 8.2 7.7 6.6 5.3 4.1 2.5
Iowa 7.2 3.3 6.2 8.1 8.6 9.4 9.1 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.0 6.9 6.1 4.7 3.1
Illinois 7.7 2.5 4.3 6.0 7.7 8.6 9.2 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4 8.0 6.8 5.4 3.5
Penn St. 7.5 2.8 4.9 7.1 8.1 9.2 9.8 9.4 8.9 8.6 8.4 7.2 6.7 5.4 3.6
Indiana 8.0 2.0 4.4 5.6 7.0 7.7 8.5 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.2 8.8 8.0 6.9 4.4
Rutgers 9.1 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.5 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.7 9.6 10.4 10.9 11.0 10.7 7.5
Minnesota 9.6 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.1 7.2 8.0 9.1 10.3 11.2 12.0 12.3 10.5
Nebraska 10.2 0.4 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.6 4.8 6.1 6.8 8.3 9.8 11.3 13.0 14.2 15.5
Northwestern 11.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.6 5.1 6.6 8.4 10.6 13.9 18.4 26.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.8 8.3 11.1 13.6 16.2 15.8 12.8 6.7
Maryland 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.4 3.5 5.4 7.0 8.3 10.0 11.9 11.4 11.4 10.2 7.7 4.8 2.5 0.7
Purdue 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.3 6.7 8.5 10.1 11.1 11.7 11.0 9.8 7.3 5.3 2.7 0.7
Ohio St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.1 6.8 8.9 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.4 9.6 7.5 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.3
Michigan 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.8 9.8 10.7 10.6 10.1 9.1 7.3 5.2 4.2 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.9 9.6 10.7 11.1 10.3 9.4 8.3 6.4 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Iowa 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.2 5.1 6.7 7.9 10.0 10.5 10.2 10.2 9.2 7.6 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Illinois 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.9 5.9 7.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.7 4.7 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.0 8.8 10.0 10.6 10.9 10.1 8.8 7.2 5.7 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Indiana 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 6.8 8.5 9.9 10.5 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.7 5.9 4.5 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 2.8 5.1 7.3 9.7 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.1 8.7 7.0 5.2 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.5 1.8 4.0 6.4 8.5 10.6 10.9 11.3 10.9 9.3 7.9 6.3 4.7 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 7 - 13 1.0 3.2 5.7 7.7 10.3 11.5 11.8 11.0 9.5 8.5 6.5 4.7 3.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 5 - 15 2.1 6.2 9.6 11.7 12.6 12.9 11.5 9.8 7.4 5.9 4.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 55.5% 43.4 10.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maryland 17.2% 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue 16.1% 9.8 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 11.1% 6.5 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan 5.0% 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 3.8% 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 3.3% 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 2.0% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 98.3% 40.3% 58.0% 1   46.1 22.4 11.4 6.2 4.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 97.1%
Maryland 86.9% 14.1% 72.8% 2   13.3 14.1 13.5 10.5 9.0 7.6 5.6 4.8 3.7 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.1 84.7%
Purdue 84.3% 12.2% 72.1% 3   12.0 12.5 12.5 10.2 9.1 7.8 6.2 5.2 3.6 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 15.7 82.1%
Ohio St. 77.9% 9.5% 68.4% 4   8.3 9.8 11.0 9.1 8.8 7.9 6.6 5.7 4.1 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 22.1 75.6%
Michigan 61.1% 5.3% 55.8% 5   3.6 5.5 6.9 7.0 7.5 6.8 6.3 5.8 4.5 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 38.9 58.9%
Wisconsin 56.1% 4.0% 52.2% 6   2.6 4.3 5.9 5.9 6.6 6.5 6.0 6.3 4.7 3.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 43.9 54.3%
Iowa 49.8% 3.3% 46.5% 8   1.4 2.8 4.3 4.4 5.5 6.3 5.9 5.9 4.7 4.0 3.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 50.2 48.1%
Illinois 48.5% 3.1% 45.4% 8   1.5 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.0 4.0 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 51.5 46.8%
Penn St. 46.3% 2.9% 43.4% 11   1.1 1.8 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.8 5.5 5.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 53.7 44.7%
Indiana 45.2% 2.4% 42.8% 11   1.1 2.1 3.3 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.2 3.9 1.0 0.0 54.8 43.8%
Rutgers 28.0% 1.2% 26.7% 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 72.0 27.1%
Minnesota 23.1% 1.0% 22.0% 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 2.2 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.9 22.3%
Nebraska 15.2% 0.5% 14.6% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.0 84.8 14.7%
Northwestern 9.2% 0.2% 8.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 90.8 9.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 98.3% 0.2% 98.1% 91.9% 72.2% 52.0% 35.2% 22.6% 14.1%
Maryland 86.9% 1.6% 86.2% 69.7% 43.7% 24.5% 13.3% 6.6% 3.2%
Purdue 84.3% 1.5% 83.6% 65.8% 39.6% 21.3% 11.4% 5.7% 2.8%
Ohio St. 77.9% 2.2% 76.8% 58.5% 33.6% 17.4% 8.4% 4.1% 2.0%
Michigan 61.1% 2.5% 59.9% 41.7% 21.4% 9.6% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8%
Wisconsin 56.1% 2.3% 55.0% 36.9% 17.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6%
Iowa 49.8% 2.9% 48.4% 30.7% 13.8% 6.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Illinois 48.5% 3.4% 46.8% 30.0% 13.1% 5.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Penn St. 46.3% 3.6% 44.5% 28.0% 12.3% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Indiana 45.2% 3.2% 43.6% 26.6% 11.2% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%
Rutgers 28.0% 3.4% 26.2% 14.4% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Minnesota 23.1% 2.1% 22.0% 12.1% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Nebraska 15.2% 2.4% 14.0% 7.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 9.2% 1.5% 8.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.3 0.0 0.7 5.2 19.0 31.9 28.1 12.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.1 0.1 1.0 7.1 21.7 32.2 25.3 10.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.2 0.1 1.4 7.7 20.5 30.8 24.6 11.3 3.1 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.9% 2.9 1.1 9.5 26.0 33.8 21.4 6.9 1.3 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 88.7% 1.6 11.3 37.2 35.3 13.7 2.3 0.2 0.0
Final Four 66.6% 0.9 33.4 48.2 16.9 1.5 0.1
Final Game 42.5% 0.5 57.5 38.6 3.9
Champion 24.9% 0.2 75.1 24.9